Analyst: Experts, Kremlin Cite NATO, Western Expansion As Incursion Motive

russia ukraine
TOPSHOT - A Ukrainian serviceman fires at Russia-backed separatists during night combat on the front line near Novolugansk in the Donetsk region on November 14, 2019. - (Photo by ANATOLII STEPANOV/AFP via Getty Images)

February 24, 2022

Explosions sounded across Ukraine on Wednesday as the Kremlin carried out its promises to wage war against Ukraine. It came within hours of predictions by U.S. security experts. The UN Security Council held an emergency meeting to discuss the escalations, with the UN Secretary-General petitioning Putin to “give peace a chance,” according to PBS.

Experts Explain Russia’s Motives 

“I think the War will begin soon,” said Ron Aledo, a former CIA senior analyst and current CEO of Miami Intelligence Agency.  Explosions were heard in Kyiv and across Ukraine on Wednesday following cyberattacks and provocations, see NPR News.

Aledo regards the rapidly escalating security crisis in the Balkans as the symptom of a larger geopolitical problem. 

“The root cause of it is NATO and US neocon expansionism. All Russia wanted is its own Monroe Doctrine, and the US and NATO completely disregarded it. The Ukrainian government are useful idiots that think the US will go to war with Russia for them,” said Aledo in an interview with American Pigeon

“That is nonsense. They will sacrifice thousands of Ukrainian soldiers for nothing. All it takes to save them is to give independence to Donbas and promise Russia they will not be NATO members. That is it,” he added. 

Aledo was referring to the Western Hemisphere policy known as the Monroe Doctrine which was articulated by the U.S. President James Monroe in 1823, in which the U.S. warned Europe that it would not tolerate further colonization. 

Aledo additionally warned in recent public comments that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky would “soon regret very much” not following the terms set forth in the follow-up ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine in Minsk, Belarus 2015, known as “the Minsk II Agreement.”

“He (Zelensky) was under extreme pressure from the Anti Russian Ultra Nationalists from Western Ukraine (mostly former Polish territory) not to follow with the MINSK II Agreements,” Aledo wrote, in a recent public statement made to his Linkedin account. 

American Pigeon recently reported that photojournalist Dean O’Brien obtained local footage alleging that Ukraine’s government forces have been continuously bombing Donbas for years. This has allegedly resulted in a large number of civilian deaths; a claim that U.S. officials deny, (see Feb. 16 statements made by State Department Spokesperson Ned Price.

(READ MORE: Russia Recognizes Ukraine Breakaway Republics; Western Leaders Levy Sanctions)

On Feb. 23, O’Brien stated via social media that the Kremlin-recognized republics of Donetsk and Lugansk have requested support from the Kremlin against the artillery strikes by Ukraine’s forces, see photos of the documents here. O’Brien also claims that the situation in Donbas is dangerous for civilian targets, including journalists, who come “under fire by the Armed Forces of Ukraine.” 

Escalations in Kyiv 

After the initial explosions Wednesday night, Michael Holmes of CNN tweeted that a photo, of what appeared to be an explosion at Ukrainian President Zelensky’s residence, was sent to CNN International Correspondent Matthew Chance. Additional statements made by the Ukrainian foreign ministry to media via Whatsapp stated that Russian forces had “touched down in Odessa” and were “crossing the border into Kharkiv.” 

The Kyiv Independent reports that shelling by Russian forces has been ongoing in Donbas since Feb. 17. On Feb. 21, The Kyiv Independent reported that Kyvian civilians were joining local militias to protect the nation against the Russian forces. 

The U.S. State Department has issued an emergency contact form for Americans trapped within Ukraine. The form was released on Feb. 22, with the purpose of maintaining contact between the United States and U.S. nationals still inside the country. Earlier, Americans were instructed to leave Ukraine. Earlier reports stated that the U.S. has set up consular services to a hotel-based welcome center in Poland, see State Secretary Athony Blinken remarks, Feb. 21.

Poland Braces For Impact 

As escalations continue, media reports state that U.S. troops are stationed in Poland to brace for the influx of Ukrainian refugees into the neighboring country, see The New York Times

The U.S. Department of Defense released a statement explaining that this shift of regional U.S. forces was “to protect the NATO frontline.” 

“President Joe Biden ordered U.S. troops already based in Europe to shore up the defenses of nations bordering Ukraine,” wrote the DoD press relations department. 

“Biden directed Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III to move forces within the U.S. European Command’s area of operations to the Baltic Republics, Poland and Ukraine’s southeastern flank. ” 

Western Retaliation 

The West has declared sanctions as a measure of retaliation against the Russian incursion. As U.S. President Biden has reportedly considered cutting the Russian Federation off from the global SWIFT banking system, Russia states they would consider this an act of war, according to the Russian-government backed TASS media agency

CNN quoted a U.S. official promising “full scale sanctions” on Russia in retaliation.

Kyle Kulinski, host of The Kyle Kulinski Show,” noted that this may include SWIFT. “This (CNN broadcast on Biden sanction pledge) sounds like it includes SWIFT, which Russia said it will treat as a declaration of war. Holy f—- s—-,” wrote Kulinski, via Twitter. 

Fox News host Jesse Watters warned that Biden’s Russia sanction policy would “do more harm to Americans,” than to Russia. “Biden does not understand that sanctions to Russia are like mosquitoes to Louisiana. It’s a way of life,”said Watters.


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